Three organizations track dying democracies annually. Cross-analysis reveals which nations are backsliding and what stage of decline they've reached.
Hyle Editorial·
There is a list of democracies currently dying. Updated annually by three independent organizations. Your country might be on it. In 2024, the V-Dem Institute classified 71 nations as undergoing "autocratization"—the gradual erosion of democratic institutions. Freedom House marked 2023 as the eighteenth consecutive year of global freedom decline. The Economist Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index shows that only 7.8% of the world's population now lives in what it classifies as "full democracies."
These aren't opinions. They're measurements. Each organization uses dozens of indicators, hundreds of country experts, and reproducible methodologies to track something many assumed was permanent: the slow death of democratic governance. The question is no longer whether democracy is retreating globally, but whether yours is next—and how far along the process might be.
The Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) project, headquartered at the University of Gothenburg, represents the most ambitious attempt to quantify democracy's nuances. Its 2024 report analyzed 202 countries across 450 indicators, employing over 3,500 country experts who code everything from judicial independence to the harassment of journalists.
V-Dem's crucial innovation is distinguishing between electoral and liberal democracy. A nation can maintain competitive elections while systematically dismantling the institutions that make those elections meaningful—what researchers call "electoral autocracy." As of 2024, V-Dem classifies 60 countries as electoral autocracies, including nations that most citizens would assume are democracies.
[!INSIGHT] V-Dem's data reveals that 71 countries are currently experiencing autocratization—up from just 13 a decade ago. This represents 2.8 billion people, or 35% of the world's population, living in nations where democratic quality is actively declining.
The V-Dem framework identifies several warning signs that precede democratic breakdown: erosion of civil liberties, attacks on media independence, weakening of civil society, and the politicization of judicial appointments. Critically, these changes often occur gradually—what political scientists Steven Levitsky and Daniel Ziblatt term "democratic backsliding."
Freedom House: The Freedom Score
Freedom House, founded in 1941, takes a more straightforward approach. Its annual "Freedom in the World" report assigns each country two scores: Political Rights (10 questions) and Civil Liberties (15 questions). Countries receive aggregate scores from 0 to 100 and classifications as "Free," "Partly Free," or "Not Free."
The 2024 report delivered sobering news: global freedom has declined for the eighteenth consecutive year. Only 44 countries recorded improvements, while 52 registered declines. Perhaps more troubling, the gap between the number of countries improving and declining has widened since 2005.
“*"The long-term global decline in freedom has accelerated. In 2024, the forces of autocracy have gained ground in nearly every region.”
— Freedom House, Freedom in the World 2024
Freedom House's methodology emphasizes what it calls "consolidated democracies" versus nations experiencing what scholars term "democratic decay." The organization has tracked concerning patterns in countries once considered democratic success stories—Poland, Hungary, and increasingly, India.
The EIU Democracy Index: The Five-Tier System
The Economist Intelligence Unit offers perhaps the most granular classification system. Countries receive scores across five categories—electoral process and pluralism, functioning of government, political participation, political culture, and civil liberties—resulting in a 0-10 scale that sorts nations into four regime types:
Full Democracies (scores 8-10): Only 24 countries qualify
Flawed Democracies (6-8): 50 countries, including the United States, France, and Japan
Hybrid Regimes (4-6): 34 countries displaying mixed democratic-authoritarian characteristics
Authoritarian Regimes (0-4): 59 countries with minimal democratic features
“[!NOTE] The EIU's classification of the United States as a "flawed democracy" since 2016”
— downgraded due to political polarization and declining trust in institutions—demonstrates that democratic backsliding affects even long-established democratic systems.
Cross-Analysis: Where Do Countries Stand?
The Nations in Crisis
When we cross-reference all three indices, a disturbing picture emerges. Certain nations appear on all three "watch lists"—showing decline in V-Dem's autocratization tracking, falling scores in Freedom House's assessments, and downward trajectories in the EIU index.
India, the world's largest democracy by population, presents perhaps the most consequential case. V-Dem reclassified India as an "electoral autocracy" in 2021. Freedom House downgraded India from "Free" to "Partly Free." The EIU places India at 7.04—firmly in the "flawed democracy" category but trending downward.
Turkey has completed what scholars call a full "democratic breakdown." Once considered a model of Muslim-majority democracy, Turkey now scores 3.01 on the EIU index. Freedom House classifies it as "Not Free." V-Dem tracks Turkey as one of the top ten autocratizers over the past decade.
Hungary represents the European Union's first autocratization case. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has openly celebrated creating an "illiberal democracy." V-Dem reclassified Hungary as an electoral autocracy in 2020—the first EU member to receive this designation.
Staging the Decline: Where Is Your Country?
Synthesizing the three methodologies, we can identify five stages of democratic decline:
Stage 1: Early Warning
Rising political polarization, declining trust in institutions
Examples: United States, France, United Kingdom
Democracy status: Intact but stressed
Stage 2: Institutional Stress
Attacks on judicial independence, media consolidation, erosion of civil liberties
Examples: Poland (pre-2023), Israel, Philippines
Democracy status: Flawed but functional
Stage 3: Accelerated Backsliding
Constitutional changes concentrating executive power, suppression of opposition
Examples: India, Brazil (2018-2022), El Salvador
Democracy status: Seriously compromised
Stage 4: Electoral Autocracy
Elections continue but lack genuine competition or fairness
Examples: Hungary, Turkey, Serbia
Democracy status: Democratic in name only
Stage 5: Consolidated Authoritarianism
All meaningful democratic institutions dismantled or captured
Examples: Russia, Belarus, Venezuela
Democracy status: Functionally extinct
[!INSIGHT] The transition from Stage 1 to Stage 5 typically takes 10-15 years when unchecked. However, democratic recovery is possible at any stage—the key intervention point is mass mobilization before institutional capture is complete.
The Methodology Debate
Critics argue that these indices reflect Western liberal biases. The "thick" versus "thin" democracy debate questions whether these measurements properly account for non-Western democratic traditions or alternative governance models. Some scholars note that indices may overweight formal institutions while underweighting substantive outcomes like inequality reduction or public service delivery.
However, the convergence of three independently designed methodologies strengthens their collective validity. When V-Dem, Freedom House, and the EIU all flag the same countries for democratic decline, the signal becomes difficult to dismiss as methodological artifact.
“*"The beauty of having multiple indices is that they check each other. When they agree, we should pay attention.”
— Dr. Anna Lührmann, Deputy Director, V-Dem Institute
Implications: Why the List Matters
The existence of these tracking mechanisms serves crucial functions beyond academic measurement. Financial institutions consult democracy indices when assessing country risk. International organizations use them to calibrate engagement strategies. Democratic activists in declining regimes cite them to mobilize domestic opposition and attract international attention.
The staging framework offers something precious: early warning. Countries in Stage 1 or Stage 2 can still reverse course through electoral mobilization, institutional reform, and civil society activation. By Stage 4, the costs of democratic restoration—both in human and political terms—multiply dramatically.
Perhaps most importantly, these indices demolish the assumption that democracy, once achieved, becomes permanent. Democratic governance requires constant maintenance, active citizenship, and institutional resilience. The list exists because vigilance failed.
Conclusion
Key Takeaway Democratic decline is measurable, staged, and accelerating. Three independent methodologies now track the death of democracies in real-time, revealing that 71 nations housing 2.8 billion people are experiencing active autocratization. Whether your country appears on the warning lists—and what stage of decline it occupies—may be the most consequential political question you're not asking.
The lists are updated annually. The methodologies improve constantly. The data accumulates. The only question remaining is whether anyone will act on what the numbers reveal.
Sources: V-Dem Institute, Democracy Report 2024; Freedom House, Freedom in the World 2024; Economist Intelligence Unit, Democracy Index 2024; Levitsky & Ziblatt, "How Democracies Die" (2018); Lührmann & Lindberg, "A third wave of autocratization is here" (Democratization, 2019)
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